As violence erupts once more in Israel and the Gaza Strip, new military technology is set to change how future conflicts will play out.
For the first time, a missile-defence system is working effectively. Nicknamed "Iron Dome", Israel's missile interceptor uses radar to identify rocket launches, track their trajectory and guide a Mach 2.2 missile to blow them up mid-air.
By noon on 19 November, 877 rockets were fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip, according to figures from the Israeli Defence Force, which claims to have downed 307 rockets on a dangerous trajectory.
Until 17 November the system had a range of only 15 kilometres but a software upgrade fast-tracked over the weekend extended the range to
75?km, says Ben Goodlad, a defence analyst with IHS Jane's, the military data publisher based in Coulsdon, UK.
That immediately allowed the system to destroy at least one Iranian-designed Fajr-5 missile headed for Tel Aviv. Although the Fajr-5 can reach Tel Aviv, about 70km away, most rockets coming out of the Gaza Strip are Qassam rockets, with ranges between 3 and 15?km. "They are very easy to produce, made of common day to day materials, but are quite unsophisticated, not guided in any way," says Goodlad.
Other ways
Iron Dome's success may presage a change in tactics, potentially making future conflicts worse. "This technology is a game changer," says Goodlad. "It will make Hamas come up with other ways to get through. Or they may acquire higher range rockets to negate these new defences."
To spare wasting the interceptor rockets, which cost at least $40,000 each, the system predicts a weapon's trajectory so its operators can ignore a missile if it will fall into uninhabited areas or the ocean. But for those they decide to target, it seems to be working well.
"It's very difficult to gauge its success rate as it depends how that is measured. How many interceptors are being fired to knock out one missile for instance?" says Goodlad. "But some say rates of between 87 and 90 per cent are being achieved in this Gaza conflict."
That's beats the expected 80 per cent success rate the US Congressional Research Service cites for the system during its test phase in a 7 November report to Congress.
International interest
The US government contributed about $290 million to the construction of the system ? the deal being that US Patriot missile-maker Raytheon should get to make and sell Iron Dome variants to the US military. We "should explore any opportunity to enter into co-production of the Iron Dome system with Israel, in light of the significant US investment in this system", the CRS quotes the House Armed Services Committee as saying.
The success of Iron Dome also has the South Korean government seeking its services, in a bid to quash potential rocket launches from neighbouring North Korea.
Israel currently has five of the $50-million Iron Dome batteries in operation, but wants a total of 13. Made by state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, Iron Dome's firing battery contains 20 3-metre-long, 90-kilogram interceptor missiles.
Why missile interception has suddenly become possible is not clear. Goodlad suspects improved algorithms are playing a part. "Rafael is not being completely open about the exact technology behind the identification, trajectory spotting and guidance algorithms. But we do know that interception is being decided with a man in the loop ? it's not automatic," he says.
Robotic future
Missile interceptors might not remain manual forever. This week, a coalition of organisations led by non-governmental organisation Human Rights Watch called on the UN to ensure that weapons like Iron Dome never become autonomous, deciding on their own what to shoot down ? which in Iron Dome's case could put friendly or civilian aircraft at risk.
"Iron Dome is a precursor system to autonomous robot weapons," says Noel Sharkey, of the International Committee for Robot Arms Control, who acted as the coalition's technical reviewer. "We are asking that nations prohibit the development, production and use of fully autonomous weapons through an international legally binding instrument."
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